The three Wednesdays leading up to the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden collectively witnessed a lifetime of drama at Washington, from a disorganised populist remake of the Capitol Burning of 1814 to the second innings of a Presidential impeachment, drawing up the memories of an 1876 episode involving the erstwhile Secretary of War, William Belknap (who was impeached after resigning from office, albeit being acquitted in the consequent Senate trial). However, the zenith and the eventual calm arrived quickly with Trump’s lacklustre farewell address and the polished bravado of Biden’s healing touch which was conveyed through his inaugural address, respectively. While there is a lot of discussion regarding both events, some major observations and insights must be elucidated upon, before the next season of Washington drama i.e. the Senate cabinet approvals and the second Senate trial of Trump get underway.
Pictured from Left to Right; Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, The Capitol Hill Riots of January 6th, 2021 | Copyright: STEPHANIE KEITH | Credit: REUTERS.
While most mainstream news outlets picked up on the long list of Presidential pardons, most have skipped a rather significant final act of the Trump Administration. In his final hours as President, Trump signed an executive order lifting aluminium import tariffs which had been imposed on the United Arab Emirates in 2018. These were enacted in an effort to boost domestic production as a part of his America First policy, exercised under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (which was a clear legal malpractice owing to the fact that this section is allowed to function only in the case of a national security threat). Rumours of a rollback on these 10% tariffs were afloat during the October of 2020. Just weeks earlier, UAE and Israel had signed the Abraham Accords aiming to normalise relations. Trump’s parting gift to the Emiratis is going to significantly affect the Biden Administration’s Yemen policy, as every Israel-recognition can further fuel a conflict which solely aims to paralyse Iran’s militaristic influence in the Middle East. Now, Israeli munitions will find themselves in Yemen, through the triggers of UAE, an important player in the Saudi-led coalition.
However, taking a step back from action, Trump’s parting words at Joint Base Andrews sparked a significant amount of curiosity. Trump spoke about having had the best American economy in years, up-until COVID19 arrived, referencing that unemployment was an all-time low up-until February 2020. Biden will once again be assuming leadership at a time of economic slowdown. 2009 witnessed a Biden dealing aggressively with the Financial Crisis and 2021 will once again witness a Biden at work, attempting to stabilise the post-COVID American economy, ensure that a situation of post-COVID can be reached through effective vaccination and reduce the 6.7% unemployment rate (as of December 2020, which was at a staggering 14.8% in April 2020, the highest since data was first collected). Although, on an immediate basis, Biden will be negotiating on two fronts with the Republicans: one of them definitely being the proposed $300 billion stimulus package, and the other one being the abolishment of the Senatorial filibuster. The second front is a knotty problem for the Democrats at the moment, owing to the fact that Mitch McConnell wants the filibuster kept, in exchange for his loyalty during the Senatorial impeachment trial for Trump. 10 Republicans had crossed over on the issue with McConnell’s influence promising the Democrats more. If this trial falls through, Trump would be barred from holding public office, which he is painfully aware of. Hence, the parting comments on the economy, unemployment, the military and sticking to ‘China Virus’ up-till the very end, laying the grounds for multiple gotcha-s in case Biden fails to hit his marks.
Two things about 20th January have kept people on their toes. The first one being Trump’s rushed indication that his farewell wasn’t final, indicating that he would return to influencing public opinion in one way or another. A Senate conviction would allow for Trump to expand into a zone which can rightfully be called his forte: manipulation of mass media. For scholars upholding the route taken by Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky in their propaganda model of the corporate media, Trump is quite likely the candidate that tests the hypothesis to its absolute limit. Herman-Chomsky’s fifth filter in their model - fear ideology, took into account authoritarian submission as the logical end. Revised analysis of the model and newer literature ought to take into account the Capitol riots that had occurred due to Trump raising the war flag, showcasing that unorganised, un-strategised and unforeseen violence can be dropped at the tip of a hat with no objective other than the future display of societal soft power. Trump’s most probable media attack will centre around the FBI investigation into Hunter Biden’s finances and businesses abroad, which was the angle he had exploited during the Ukrainian scandal, resulting in his first impeachment. Without the fear of impeachment and with an ideologically charged mob ready to disregard all contrary information as ‘fake news’, Trump’s weaponization of the situation will take a heavy toll on Biden, politically as well as psychologically. Beau Biden’s death in 2015 which prevented Biden from running in 2016 and his family man status are up for exploits in a Trump controlled landscape.
The second and rather disappointing as compared to a frightening set of observations involves the breaking of multiple customs which ceremoniously ensure that the transfer of power is peaceful and rather a jolly event. Not only did Trump not attend Biden’s inauguration, he denied the Biden camp a number of hospitality arrangements which are deemed to be fundamental. No government air transport was provided to Biden, leading him to arrange his own from Delaware to Maryland. No coffee with the new President and First-spouse upon their arrival, and no final handshakes and waving goodbye to the departing former President on the steps of the Capitol. Surprisingly, Mike Pence and Kamala Harris performed the parting act, a move which will earn the former the respect of many attending Republicans and Democrats but at the same time, be the final nail in the coffin for his already dead political career.
However, keeping the negativities aside, the inauguration and subsequent events in the day will have celebrated a lot of firsts. From Jon Ossoff taking centre stage as the youngest Democratic senator (since Biden himself) to Doug Emhoff being the first Jewish individual in a non-elected high office, quite a number of records already have been and will be broken in the coming days if the Senatorial confirmations on his cabinet fall through. Biden is on his way to have a historic cabinet which ought to score multiple progressive points. The first openly gay person to serve on a US cabinet (Pete Buttigieg), the first woman director of national intelligence (Avril Haines), the first Native American on a US cabinet (Deb Haaland), the list goes on. To those who uphold America as the melting pot and look to it as a land of endless opportunity, this inauguration will be a reaffirmation of that faith. It is up to Biden to craft the next chapter in the American dream, rebuild a collapsing NATO, re-align relations with China, repair a deeply divided society and re-establish law and order. A rather interesting first 100 days awaits.
About the Author: Abhiraj Goswami is a fresh graduate of Jadavpur University, majoring in Political Science. His areas of interest include international security, foreign policy studies, populism and pop-culture. He co-runs a student based NGO called Stronger Kolkata Initiative. You can check out their work here.
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